On April 7, Israel announced that it was reducing the presence of ground forces in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. The war has already been going on for six months, and the withdrawal of most of the troops raises questions about Israel's future actions and intentions. "We are Ukraine" tells what is known about them.
Where does the Israel Defense Forces come from?
After the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year, when the militants killed about 1,200 people and took more than 250 people hostage, Israel launched a ground military operation in the Gaza Strip on October 27. The two main goals of the war declared by Israel: the destruction of Hamas' military potential and the return of the hostages.
The first weeks after the start of the ground operation in the Sector were marked by a significant advance of the IDF to the north. However, in mid-November 2023, Israeli forces sent leaflets warning residents of the southern city of Khan Younis that they should evacuate. This was the signal for the beginning of the operation in this direction, and its active implementation began in the first days of December last year.
On December 1, 2023, a massive air operation against Khan Yunis took place, and on December 3, the expansion of ground military operations was announced. The operation around this southern city lasted for four months, and on April 7 it was announced that the IDF had completed its mission in the region.
"All actions were carried out in a very impressive manner and thus Hamas ceased to function as a military organization in the entire Gaza Strip," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on April 7.
At first, his words were received with surprise, because they sounded as if Hamas was defeated in the entire Sector. Therefore, it was necessary to clarify that he meant the militants in Khan Yunis. So, regardless of the statement about the defeat of Hamas, it cannot be said that one of the two main goals of the war has been achieved - it continues to function. This was confirmed by the Chief of the General Staff of the IDF Herzi Ha-Levi.
"The war in Gaza continues and we are far from stopping," he warned, "High-ranking Hamas officials are still hiding. Sooner or later we will get to them. We are making progress, we continue to kill more terrorists and commanders and destroy more terrorist infrastructure."
But as of April 7, as Galant explained, in order to prepare for future missions, Israeli forces withdrew from the southern part of Gaza. According to the Institute for the Study of War, it refers to the 98th division of the IDF and the brigades and units that operated under its command. In this direction, the "Nakhal" infantry brigade remains, which will operate for the security of the Netsarim corridor or highway 749, which divides the Sector into southern and northern parts (highlighted in red on the map).
map_7_April.png (1.51 MB)
Given that Israel withdrew most of its troops from the northern part of Gaza in January, the current withdrawal of maneuverable ground forces from the South and the control of the corridor by the forces of one brigade means a transition to a raid model of warfare: periodic incursions into the territory to carry out specific tasks.
Retired General Israel Ziv, after the Israeli Defense Minister's statement, pessimistically noted that Khan-Younis is returning to the hands of Hamas, and its control in Gaza continues. According to rough estimates, at the peak of the offensive, there were 30,000 to 40,000 IDF soldiers in the Sector, although the number was not officially announced. After the withdrawal of the troops on April 7, several thousand of them remain.
"The role of the Nahal brigade in ensuring the demarcation between the central and northern parts of the Gaza Strip is consistent with the IDF's complete transition to a raid model," the Institute for the Study of War noted, - Israeli military correspondents reported that the Israel Defense Forces use this road (749, - author .) for rapid raids into the Gaza Strip, such as the Al-Shifa hospital operation, which the IDF chief of staff described as a "great achievement" because it led to the capture and death of many high-ranking members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters."
The exit from Khan Younis allows Palestinian civilians who are currently hiding in the southern city of Rafah to return there.
Will there be a new operation?
According to the statements of the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, at the beginning of the war, 24 Hamas battalions were active in the Gaza Strip, and as of now, 18 of them have been divided into smaller cells. Four Hamas battalions remain intact and are in southern Gaza in Rafah. Also, about 1.4 million Palestinians moved there during the war. It is believed that Hamas leaders and Israeli hostages may be hiding there.
In March, Netanyahu said he approved the plan to enter the city. After the withdrawal of troops from the South, he said that he had already set a date, but he did not announce it. Although the Israeli military command did not elaborate on the details of its decision to withdraw from Khan Younis, there is speculation that it was done so that Palestinian civilians could migrate there from Rafah, which would facilitate operations in the city. And this can be considered as an explanation given the West's reaction to Israel's intention to attack Rafah.
Rafah during the bombing on March 20, 2024
US President Joe Biden has consistently said he supports Israel, but Rafah has called it a red line, even though it does not specifically refer to providing weapons.
"We've made it clear in many conversations that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake," said US Vice President Kamala Harris. "Let me tell you something: I've studied the maps. These people have nowhere to go."
French President Emmanuel Macron also condemned a potential military operation in the city. He said that any forcible transfer of Palestinians from Rafah by Israel would amount to a war crime. Israel's Strategic Planning Minister Ron Dermer discussed with US representatives a plan to evacuate 1.4 million Palestinians to tents north of Rafah, but this plan was not approved.
After the IDF pulls out of Khan Yunis, the Palestinians can move to the North themselves, although Khan Yunis is badly damaged after four months of fighting.
Khan Yunis after the withdrawal of troops
However, the withdrawal of Israeli troops does not mean that the fire has stopped. The Prime Minister of Israel pointed to the losses of Hamas and noted that the country is one step closer to victory. But the enemy continues to fight, in particular from Khan Younisi, after the withdrawal of Israeli forces, several rockets were fired at Israel, and 129 Israeli hostages are still in captivity.
"I have made it clear to the international community that there will be no ceasefire without the return of the abductees. It simply will not happen," Netanyahu said.
A temporary ceasefire is currently being negotiated.
Negotiations between Hamas and Israel: what are the demands of the parties?
In half a year of war between the two sides of the conflict, after weeks of negotiations with the assistance of Egypt, Qatar and the United States, it was possible to reach a ceasefire once, which lasted from November 24 to 30, 2023.
Negotiations in this format proceed with varying levels of intensity, but so far without results. On April 7, another round began in Cairo, with the participation of the head of the CIA, William Burns, and even with certain expectations regarding the date of the announcement of a cease-fire. It seems that the parties have demonstrated greater flexibility and can already notify him from April 9 to 12. But these are only preliminary optimistic expectations.
"The agreement establishes a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages held by Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip," the Institute for the Study of War stated, "Israel will release at least 700 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the hostages. Hamas must provide mediators with a list of 40 alive hostages, which has reportedly been a stumbling block in talks, including the most recent one on April 7. The new proposal reportedly calls on Israel to make additional concessions on the return of displaced Palestinian civilians to the northern Gaza Strip."
Earlier, Israel proposed the gradual transfer of 60,000 Palestinians at the rate of 2,000 per day, but this proposal was rejected by Hamas. But they want him to speed up the pace.
White House National Security Adviser John Kirby said Hamas had received the proposal and it would be reviewed by the movement's leader, Yahya Sinwar, within days. On April 9, this proposal is also to be discussed by the Israeli government.
"For the first time since the previous agreement, we have reached a critical point in the negotiations. If it succeeds, a large number of abductees will return home," said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz.
But anonymous sources already say that Hamas considers the proposal irreconcilable and does not correspond to the interests of Palestine, in particular because they demand a permanent end to the war and a complete withdrawal of troops.
It was against the background of a critical situation in the negotiations that Netanyahu warned about the specific date of the attack on Rafah, raising the stakes in this way. And, despite the withdrawal of troops from the South and the change of tactics to a raid, the IDF General Staff is determined that the conflict will be long. Therefore, neither the latest decision on the reduction of troops, nor the negotiations, looks like the end of the war.
"We have made very significant progress in the fighting in Gaza, but the objectives have not yet been fully achieved: the return of all hostages home, the return of all residents of the North and South (who were displaced by the war) to their homes, securing and dismantling Hamas throughout the Gaza Strip in a way for the Gaza Strip to have a government that is not Hamas," Hertzi Ha-Levi said, "As we said, some goals will take a long time and we will not back down until we achieve them. The return of the hostages is important and urgent, and its timer differs from that of other targets."
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