The military-political consequences of Iran's attack on Israel will largely depend on the severity of Washington's reaction
Due to Washington’s extremely cautious policy regarding the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine, the formation of another “axis of evil” has begun in the person of Iran, Russia and the DPRK, behind which looms the figure of China, which intends to challenge the modern American-centric system of international relations. On the night of April 14, Israel, in cooperation with its allies, successfully intercepted almost all of the 300 missiles and drones launched by Iran while operating outside its airspace. The incident confirms the high effectiveness of the joint missile defense of Israel and the United States, but the missile strike became part of the general strategy of the countries of the newly-minted “axis” to undermine American influence in the world. Why Russian and Chinese interests may be behind Iran’s attack, as well as how all this may be reflected in US assistance to Ukraine, read the material from Apostrophe.
We managed to fight back, but...
According to CNN, the US Navy took part in the operation, which, using the Aegis system on board two destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, shot down at least three ballistic missiles. In addition to naval forces, American military aircraft also took part in the interception, but their exact locations were not disclosed, since both actions from aircraft carriers and from land bases are possible.
CNN also notes that Israel is actively developing its missile defense systems, using them to protect against a variety of threats, including ballistic and cruise missiles. According to the Israeli Missile Defense Organization (IMDO), the Iron Dome system is one of the key elements of this defense. It includes radars to detect missiles and an automated control system for threat assessment, which determines whether an incoming projectile poses a real threat. If threatened, Iron Dome fires missiles to intercept targets in the air.
The David's Sling system, developed by the Israeli company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and the American defense concern Raytheon, protects against medium- and short-range missiles, using Stunner and SkyCeptor kinetic interceptors to destroy targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. Israel also has Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, collaborating with the United States. Arrow 2, an improved version of the US Patriot system, intercepts missiles at an altitude of up to 51.5 kilometers and a range of up to 90 kilometers using fragmentation warheads. Arrow 3 uses hit-to-kill technology to destroy ballistic missiles in space, preventing them from re-entering the atmosphere.
CNN also mentions that Israel has advanced fighter jets in its arsenal, including the F-35I, which have already been used to destroy unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles.
The main question that arose against the background of such a massive attack by Iran on Israel sounded simple and scary at the same time: Has the Third World War already begun or not yet?
“We are not talking about the Third World War yet, but the trend is definitely alarming against the backdrop of deepening contacts between Iran, Russia, China and the DPRK. Beijing’s position, as we have seen in recent weeks, is becoming tougher. Tehran and Beijing have drawn conclusions from the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine They saw what the US reaction was. And if the Americans do not show toughness now, then China will begin to “test” Taiwan’s defense in the foreseeable future, but in such a situation it will be possible to talk about the beginning of a global conflict,” he says in a commentary to Apostrophe. "Captain 1st Rank, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Navy in 2004-2020 Andrey Ryzhenko.
Where will the indecisiveness of the United States lead?
In the US position, alas, the duality already familiar to Ukrainians remains. The White House is ready to help repel the attack, but does not want “further escalation,” especially in a format where American troops will be forced to participate in hostilities.
In its report, CNN also noted that US President Joe Biden, in a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, confirmed that the United States will not participate in offensive operations against Iran. This telephone conversation between the two leaders occurred after Iran's attack on Israel.
During the conversation, as CNN notes, Biden assessed the outcome of the attack as a victory for Israel, considering Iran's actions to be largely unsuccessful. More than 100 ballistic missiles launched by Iran have been successfully intercepted, according to a senior administration official. As a result, not a single cruise missile reached its target, and no significant objects were damaged.
A recent article in The New York Times, citing information from an Israeli official, said that Israel intends to coordinate its actions with allies in response to Iranian aggression.
“There are now two options: the United States will do the same thing that it did after the Hamas attacks on Israel, covering its allies with aircraft carriers and air support to close the skies from missiles and drones. A less profitable option for the United States is when they, fearing “further escalation” , will not do anything at all. Considering Jake Sullivan’s penchant for “caution,” this option should also not be excluded,” American expert Alexander Kraev tells Apostrophe.
Overall, it is significant that after much deliberation, the Israeli government decided against retaliating. Which indicates that they realized that the United States would definitely not support their strikes on Iran.
Does the package have a chance?
The next question is how much the situation with the strike on Israel will spur Congress to finally pass the “long-suffering” aid package to Ukraine. Some clarity on this issue has already emerged. According to far-right member of the House of Representatives and active Trumpist Marjorie Taylor Greene, in response to the Iranian attack, the United States may accept a military aid package for Ukraine and Israel. She is known for her ardent anti-Ukrainian position, for which Taylor Greene is very fond of quoting Kremlin propaganda dumpsters like RIA Novosti.
Marjorie Taylor Greene reported that Iran warned of imminent attacks on Israel. House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to bring up an aid package covering both countries for a vote, but she criticizes that approach, suggesting that the aid be split into separate bills to avoid "political manipulation" in Congress.
The politician also argues that Johnson could use support for Israel to fund Ukraine, similar to previous cases of tying different policy issues into one bill. In general, ardent Trumpists are constantly against any initiative in which Republicans and Democrats vote together, viewing it all as an election game that benefits only Joe Biden.
“An attack on Iran could spur the House of Representatives to vote for a package on Ukraine, since there is room for compromise. After all, previously in the House there were congressmen who wanted to vote for a package on Ukraine, but had doubts on a package for Israel and, on the contrary, were ready to vote for help Israel, but they were still thinking about helping Ukraine. Now there is practically no such barrier,” noted Alexander Kraev.
Cautiously optimistic, during a telephone conversation between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders, it was agreed that the latter should provide military assistance to both Israel and Ukraine. According to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, consensus has been reached on this issue.
How the new "Axis" works
According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Iran's attack methods resemble Russian operations in Ukraine aimed at exposing the vulnerabilities of Western air and missile defense systems.
Iran, using combinations of missiles and drones, is adapting Russian and Houthi techniques to develop more effective attacks against Israel and the United States. These actions include confusion and disruption of Israeli defense systems.
ISW also points out that Iran is deepening technical cooperation with Russia, North Korea and China, sharing technology and expertise that improves their ability to counter Western defense systems. There is growing interaction between these countries, which strengthens their ability to carry out coordinated actions against Western powers.
At the moment, the Kremlin is consistently promoting the concept of a “multipolar world order.” During the recent visit of the Kremlin “Ribbentrop” Sergei Lavrov to Beijing, issues of joint counteraction to the supposed “double containment” of the West were discussed. Russia and China have stepped up contacts and strengthened their strategic partnership, raising concerns in the West, including sanctions against both countries. Despite reports of China's increasing willingness to support Russia in Ukraine, China maintains an upper hand in the relationship and is not seeking an open-ended partnership, which worries the Kremlin.
“It is possible that Lavrov in China discussed the upcoming Iran's devastating blow to Israel. And Beijing, which is interested in seeing how the West behaves, most likely was not against the attack. If the States and allies do not show toughness now, limiting themselves to half measures, then the world will become one step closer to a global conflict,” Andrei Ryzhenko concluded.
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