On March 5, the so-called Super Tuesday took place in the United States - party primaries designed to determine presidential candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties. As experts predicted, the current US President Joe Biden from the Democrats and former President Donald Trump from the Republicans won in most states. For the latter, the victory was bittersweet: although Trump's opponent Nikki Haley withdrew her candidacy, she broke with one of the long-standing Republican traditions - and refused to encourage her supporters to vote for Trump. Read about the results of Super Tuesday, Trump's future prospects and the impact of the US election campaign on Ukraine in the material from Apostrophe.
Predictable Outcomes
One of the key events in determining the presidential candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties has ended. Joseph Biden and Donald Trump won the internal party elections.
According to American media, Biden won in Iowa, Vermont, Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Maine, Massachusetts, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Utah and California.
Trump won in Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Maine, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts and California.
According to CNN, Trump secured the support of 936 delegates, despite the fact that he needs to gather at least 1,215 of 2,429 delegates to win the nomination.
Biden received the support of 1,312 delegates, with the required minimum of 1,968 of 3,934 delegates.
Trump's main rival for the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley, won her only victory in Vermont. Because she was far behind Trump in the number of delegates and had no realistic chance of winning the nomination, Haley withdrew her candidacy. However, it is important that in her speech, Haley did not encourage supporters to vote for the former president. Which could significantly complicate Trump’s further election campaign.
“Both Biden and Trump won from their parties in California and Texas, respectively. These are the two states that provide the largest number of delegates whose votes are necessary for nomination,” noted a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the KNU. Taras Shevchenko, Doctor of Political Sciences, Americanist Sergei Galaka.
Both winners have already commented on the results of Super Tuesday and attacked each other. Donald Trump, speaking at his Florida estate, criticized Biden's immigration policies and called him "the worst president."
In turn, Joe Biden in his speech called Trump a threat to American democracy.
"Today's results leave the American people with a clear choice: Will we continue to move forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us back into the chaos, division and darkness that defined his presidency?" Biden said.
Trump's prospects
It should be noted that the Super Tuesday primaries are not over and candidates will compete for the nomination in other states.
“With Biden, everything is clear. He is confidently becoming the Democratic candidate. But with Trump, the situation is not yet completely clear,” says Sergei Galaka. “On the one hand, he’s rushing like a tank and doesn’t intend to stop. But, on the other hand, parties, it may be stopped by upcoming trials or some extraordinary event."
However, the chances of litigation are minimal.
“I would not focus on courts or criminal cases,” Mikhail Pashkov, co-head of the security program at the Razumkov Center, noted in a comment to Apostrophe. “The US Supreme Court has already concluded that Trump can run for president.”
Political scientist Pyotr Oleschuk, in a commentary to Apostrophe, admitted that Nikki Haley could run in the elections as an independent candidate and take votes away from Trump.
“And if Nicky Haley decides to run in the elections as an independent candidate - which she has been repeatedly called upon to do - then, of course, it will influence the result,” Oleschuk said.
Political strategist Vitaly Bala considers such a turn unlikely.
“The Republicans, I think, will not agree to this. They will rather consider Haley as the new leader for the next presidential election,” the expert suggested in a comment to Apostrophe.
Musk, help!
At the same time, Vitaly Bala drew attention to the extremely low financial support for Trump in these elections.
As reported by The New York Times, citing sources, Donald Trump on Sunday, March 3, allegedly met with people from the team of Space X founder Elon Musk and several Republican donors in Florida to secure financial support for his campaign.
As the NYT notes, Musk has been putting his “eggs in different baskets” for many years, making donations to candidates from both parties, but he has not spent much money and has distributed it fairly evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Now the situation may change.
“Although both politicians are already old, I think the result will not be in Biden’s favor. Trump is distinguished by his “vigorous” electorate,” noted Sergei Galaka.
Because of the Trump-Biden duet, Mikhail Pashkov believes, Ukraine may face several problems at once.
“The first problem is the delay in financial assistance. Trumpist Republicans will continue to block it, waiting to see how the primaries will end. The second problem is that the signing of a security agreement with the Americans is being blocked,” emphasizes Mikhail Pashkov.
According to the expert, there are two more problems that do not seem to be directly related to the elections, but stem from them.
“We are alarmed by the upcoming resignations of supporters of Ukraine Victoria Nuland and Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell. If Nuland in the White House can be replaced by a person loyal to Ukraine, then with McConnell it is more difficult. He will remain in the Senate, but his influence will be significantly reduced,” - summarizes Mikhail Pashkov.
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