Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Cold calculation: how NATO is preparing for war with Russia

 As part of strengthening NATO's defense capabilities, the Alliance command launched the Nordic Response 2024 military exercises. They involved 13 member countries, which, through their participation in the maneuvers, demonstrate their readiness to protect their territories against the backdrop of the recent expansion due to the accession of Finland and the almost formalized entry of Sweden. The factor of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine and the threat of a Russian attack on one of the Alliance countries was not directly mentioned, but the very context of the exercises indicated that their main task was to prepare for a possible clash with Russian occupiers. Exercise Nordic Response 2024, part of the larger Steadfast Defender 24 exercise, highlights the importance of collective defense and rapid response to potential threats from the Kremlin. How these maneuvers are related to the interests of Ukraine and in what case NATO countries can send their troops to our country, read in the Apostrophe material.

The legend is clear

Earlier this week, NATO launched a massive exercise, Nordic Response 2024, to strengthen the security of its territories in the Nordic countries, involving more than 20,000 troops from thirteen countries. These exercises will take place in Finland, Norway and Sweden for almost two weeks.

As part of these exercises "Nordic Response 2024", organized under the auspices of Norway, the Finnish side delegated over 4,000 troops. The Swedish military also contributed by sending about 4,500 representatives from various branches of the military to exercise in the Arctic winter.

Participants also included military personnel from Belgium, Great Britain, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the USA. Half of the military will be engaged in operations on land, the other half will conduct training at sea and in the air, using over 50 ships, including submarines, frigates, corvettes, aircraft carriers and landing ships. More than 100 aircraft are also involved in the exercises, including fighter jets, transport aircraft, maritime reconnaissance aircraft and helicopters.

Based on the legend of the exercises, as experts note, the main goal is not only to integrate the forces of Finland, which recently joined NATO, with the rest of NATO forces, but also to prepare for possible provocations by the Kremlin, including in the Baltic Sea.

“Please note how many ships and various aircraft are involved in the exercises. Among the purely combat missions at the Nordic Response 2024 exercises, logistics issues are also being actively worked out. It is clear that the Alliance command is working on the issue of quickly transporting a large number of people and equipment over long distances. Including “including in case, God forbid, something bad happens to us at the front and the Alliance, in order to protect itself from the spread of threats from the Kremlin, will have to transfer part of its forces to Ukraine,” the political analyst and missile weapons expert Alexander Kochetkov.

The public goal of the “Nordic Response 2024” maneuvers, according to the Norwegian military, is to ensure the protection and defense of the Scandinavian region, but the very wording of the statements clearly indicates that the main “hero of the occasion” here is Moscow.


"We must be able to fight back and stop anyone who seeks to challenge our borders, values and democracy. Given the current security situation in Europe, this exercise is extremely relevant and important than ever before," said Brigadier General, Commander of the Norwegian Air Operations Center Tron Strand.

Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, became a NATO member in April 2023, ending a long period of military neutrality. Sweden is now in the final stages of joining NATO as the 32nd member, which is expected to happen in March.

Maneuvers of new Alliance members

Both Sweden and Finland strengthened their ties to NATO after the Cold War, but before the Kremlin's open invasion of our country, the public in both countries was skeptical about full membership in the Alliance. Helsinki and Stockholm have long believed that a non-aligned strategy would be optimal for maintaining peaceful relations with Moscow as an influential player in the Baltic region, but everything fell into place in February 2022, when the Russians launched their stupid blitzkrieg against our country.

As a result, already in May of the same year, Sweden and Finland submitted applications for NATO membership, which affected the military preparations of the Alliance. In the past, NATO conducted exercises called "Cold Response" in the Arctic region of Northern Norway. With the addition of Finland and the upcoming entry of Sweden, the exercise was expanded and renamed "Nordic Response", covering Finland, Norway and Sweden.

The Scandinavian maneuvers are part of NATO's larger exercise Steadfast Defender, which is the Alliance's largest exercise in decades, involving up to 90,000 troops. Exercise Steadfast Defender, demonstrating the alliance's ability to protect its territories right up to the Russian border, began on January 24 and will continue until late spring.

According to information from the German publication Bild, the military exercise simulates a scenario in which the Russian Federation attacks the territory of the Alliance, which leads to the activation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter. This article emphasizes collective defense, where an attack on one member of the alliance is considered an attack on all.

The same source argues, based on intelligence data, that Russia may intend to launch an attack on Europe by the end of this year or early next year, when, according to them, the United States may situationally lose control of global leadership, which will affect its ability to assist European allies.

What are the Alliance preparing for?

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, at a recent hearing of the Armed Services Committee of the US House of Representatives, said that in the event of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a full-scale war against Russia, the entire North Atlantic Alliance will have to fight the Kremlin occupiers.

"We know that if Putin succeeds, he will not stop. He will continue to be more aggressive in the region. And other leaders around the world, other autocrats will look at this, and they will be encouraged by the fact that this happened, and we don't were able to support a democratic state,” said the head of the American defense department.

Public opinion in NATO countries is also gradually preparing for the fact that the likelihood of a direct military clash between the Alliance and the Russian Federation is growing every month, and Moscow is the main culprit here. The Western elites will not be able to endlessly play “peacekeeping” and express “deep concern” about Moscow’s actions. The editors of the Financial Times, for example, report that NATO is convinced that Moscow will definitely attack an Alliance country. According to Western diplomats, it would be an “unaffordable luxury” to believe that the Russian Federation would stop in Ukraine.

“Russia is already putting pressure on NATO countries. And it’s not just Medvedev’s latest nuclear threats and demonstrations of a certain “map” on which only the territory of the Kiev region remains from Ukraine. It is the Russians who are behind the jamming of GPS in the Baltic Sea so that nothing flies there and did not go. They constantly turn on electronic warfare. The aggression is already happening in a disguised format in order to provoke NATO countries. Let's say that in response they begin to more carefully check Russian ships in the Baltic Sea, and Moscow will immediately declare a “violation” of international law. Give a tougher answer - Moscow will begin to pose as a “victim of aggression”. The situation is constantly at the boiling point. The NATO command sees this and, accordingly, is preparing,” military expert Ivan Stupak summed up in a conversation with Apostrophe.

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