The other day, the US Supreme Court made a final decision on Donald Trump's participation in the presidential election. The former American head of state has received the green light and is eligible to run in the 2024 elections, which will take place on November 5. And it is Trump who is the favorite in the election race according to bookmaker quotes. What or who will be able to influence the course of elections in the States and on what the fate of the result depends - political scientist Pyotr Oleshchuk shared his opinion on Apostrophe TV.
The Supreme Court's decision finally closed the question of the possibility of Trump being removed from the election process based on the insurrection amendment, which his opponents had previously appealed to. And now no legal obstacles will prevent Trump from participating in the elections. But even if in the same state of Colorado Trump had not been included on the ballot, this would not have affected the elections in any way.
By and large, in the context of political segmentation in the United States, there is only a certain limited number of states that actually influence the final outcome of the elections. Setting aside Democratic and Republican states, there are a small number of states where the result could be changed (Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin - "Apostrophe"). It is these states that decide the outcome of the election. After all, according to the electoral system that exists in the United States, the winner in the state takes all the votes. Even if the state winner gets 51%, he takes all the popular votes in the state.
And those states where the question of preventing Trump from participating in the elections was raised are Democratic states. Therefore, it does not matter whether he would have been there on the ballot. All these decisions were made in order to obtain a precedent, so that Trump’s participation in the elections as a whole could later be appealed. But it didn't work.
As for the Republican primaries, it is obvious that Trump will win them on Super Tuesday (primaries in 15 states).
We must understand that Trump is one of those politicians who have a very disciplined core of fans, who ensure his victory in the primaries. And lately, Trump's ratings have only been growing. But Donald will also have certain problems, related, first of all, to the fact that every presidential election (not only in the USA, but in any state) is a battle for mobilizing voters and a battle of anti-ratings. That is, it is not enough to have a cohesive electoral core, but it is necessary to attract undecided voters who have certain doubts.
For example, take voters who currently support Nicky Haley. And when there is a poll about who they will vote for - Trump or Biden - they find it difficult to answer. And some of them answer that they will not go to the polls at all. And this is part of the voters from the Republican Party. And if they ignore the elections, it could affect the final results. Therefore, for Trump, it is necessary to mobilize that part of the Republican Party that is now in opposition to him.
Another factor that may influence is the participation of so-called third candidates in the elections. After all, purely legally, there are no obstacles for other candidates to participate in the elections. And it is already known about Robert Kennedy Jr.’s participation in the elections. Although he is a democratic politician, he announced his participation in the elections as an independent candidate. And, at least in some states, it will be on the ballot. And Kennedy’s election program and rhetoric echoes Trump-oriented voters. Kennedy is generally a very specific, niche politician and a potentially dangerous spoiler. More for Trump than Biden.
And if Nicky Haley decides to run in the elections (as an independent candidate) - which she has been repeatedly called upon to do - she will certainly influence the result.
Therefore, we have a rather complex configuration in which it is now difficult to predict anything. And Trump will be forced to solve the problem of expanding his electorate - this is an absolute fact.
So far, everything is going to the point that Biden is confidently winning from the Democrats, and Trump from the Republicans. And they will compete with each other. But purely theoretically, we can imagine a scenario that at the last moment Biden will say that he will not go to the polls. In this case, a rather interesting procedure is launched, and the Democratic Party will decide who will be the candidate. It is simply impossible to predict this now, because this scenario looks like a fantasy. But in just a few months this fantasy can turn into reality, so it’s difficult to say anything here.
In this case, who should replace Biden? For example, Michelle Obama was mentioned because she is a popular person in the United States. But the Democratic Party has many famous congressmen and governors. So they will find a candidate there. But purely theoretically, if Obama is nominated, she will simply defeat Trump. Because Trump is a specific politician and many will vote for him out of despair. At the same time, he is very odious, with high anti-ratings and levels of rejection, especially from the point of view of racial and ethnic minorities, and given his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Honestly, I am more than convinced that Trump will be defeated by any Democratic politician except Biden.
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