The Baltic countries, according to journalists, fear that the head of the Kremlin will risk testing NATO’s resolve to resist provocations or a “nightmare scenario” that implies a direct attack by the Russian Federation.
NATO, led by Germany, the USA, Great Britain and other powers, is sending additional troops to the Baltic countries and other states bordering the Russian Federation, as they consider the growing threat from Russia. Richard Milne and Ben Hall write about this in a column for the Financial Times.
As columnists note, fears are growing in the Baltic region that Russian leader Vladimir Putin could test the resolve of the North Atlantic Alliance with provocations or the “nightmare scenario” of a direct attack.
“Regional leaders view the three Baltic states, with their small territory and narrow land connections to the rest of NATO, as a place where an emboldened Putin could try to test the unity and resolve of the alliance through destabilizing provocations or even direct military attack,” the journalists say.
Moreover, they add that these fears are intensified in connection with the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House. who is already expressing his doubts about supporting European security, especially in the conflict with Russia.
At the same time, along with the growing tension, there is a feeling that the countries bordering Russia are still safer because they are members of NATO. Moreover, when the Western defense alliance has recently strengthened due to the accession of Finland and Sweden, turning the Baltic Sea into the so-called “NATO lake”.
At the same time, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania intend to significantly increase defense spending over the next few years - to 3% of GDP, above the NATO target of 2%, which Trump has said could become a requirement for US protection. At the same time, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, and its western border areas facing the Baltics and Finland are virtually devoid of Russian soldiers.
“We are safer than ever before,” says Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's foreign minister.
Threat from Russia
The Baltic countries, which joined NATO almost 20 years ago, have long warned their European allies about Russian revanchism, but only now have they begun to listen to them. At the same time, the military believes that Russia now has few resources to attack the alliance countries; however, for example, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service stated in February 2024 that “the Russians, in their own reasoning, proceed from the fact that a military conflict with NATO is possible in the next decade."
“They hope that we will become weaker. They will do everything possible to attack us psychologically,” emphasized Edgars Rinkevics, President of Latvia.
Russian military reform plans unveiled in 2023 call for doubling the number of troops stationed in the Baltic region to nearly 40,000 by 2026 and a large increase in the number of tanks and armored vehicles. And while Russia is waging an aggressive war in Ukraine, this schedule is difficult for the aggressor state to comply with, the Russian military will ensure its readiness when making the necessary decision, the Baltic countries are confident.
With defense spending at around 6-7% of GDP, Russia has kicked into gear its defense industrial machine, producing 4 million artillery shells a year, as well as hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles. Much of this low-tech equipment is designed for low-tech warfare, but Russian factories are significantly ahead of Western ones.
Therefore, experts from the Baltic countries see two scenarios for the development of events. The first is that Russia is making progress in Ukraine and is trying to exploit a weakened West.
“The way to do this is a quick coup de main in the Baltics and then a credible nuclear threat,” says Janis Kazocins, a former national security adviser and ex-head of Latvia’s foreign intelligence service.
The second scenario is that if Ukraine and Western unity hold out, then Russia may try diversionary provocations, but not a full-fledged military attack, but with dozens of possibilities for hybrid attacks - from sabotage and murder to agitating the local Russian-speaking population.
“If we talk about scenarios, I can imagine 100 of them,” emphasizes Vaidotas Urbelis, director of policy at the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense.
He is echoed by a senior EU diplomat in the Baltic countries, who is confident that these states are under threat, and in different forms - not only military, but also social, hybrid, and economic.
Baltic officials acknowledge they are vulnerable to disinformation through Russian media but say Moscow's ability to weaponize propaganda is waning as older generations die and younger people become more integrated.
Putin's dream
Richard Kols, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Latvian Parliament, says that Putin dreams of abolishing NATO, becoming a leader who will truly challenge the alliance, and it will fall apart.
“This is Putin’s dream - to test the strength of Article 5,” suggests Kohls.
Today, the most vulnerable part of NATO territory in countries bordering Russia is the narrow strip of land that makes up the Lithuanian-Polish border, known as the Suwalki Gap. According to many military experts, containing Russia here means preventing it from exploiting any of the Baltics' geographic weaknesses.
Until a few years ago, NATO's plan to defend the three Baltic countries was to allow Russia to occupy them first and then push back its military forces a few months later. Today, the strategy is to defend NATO territory “from the very first meter” and not allow Russian invaders to destroy cities, as is seen in Ukraine.
"We understand this simply: when Russia looks at us, it looks at the capabilities that exist now, today. Russia believes that they can delay and disrupt reinforcements. Deterrence will not be stable if it is based only on reinforcements," Urbelis says , Director of Defense Policy of Lithuania.
However, for the Baltic countries the most important guarantor of NATO's strength remains the United States. Many Europeans are deeply concerned about what a second Trump presidency could bring, especially after he said Russia could do "whatever it wants" with countries that don't spend enough on defense. But none of the Baltic leaders or officials interviewed said they wanted a plan in case Trump returned.
“We are not that worried. We rather see this as an opportunity to push Europe to increase spending (on defense - Ed.),” says one senior defense official in the Baltic countries.
Latvian President Rinkevics says reflection on America's role in the world has expanded beyond Trump and his Republican allies.
"We're seeing a profound change in US thinking. It's not related to the current political cycle. It's much deeper than that," he says.
Like his Baltic counterparts, he shares broad skepticism about the ability of European powers to replace the United States. The Baltic security paradox, and the way NATO allies respond to its warnings, means that the mood in the region is subject to sudden changes.
There is widespread agreement in the Baltics that NATO allies must strengthen their collective defense commitments. Therefore, the defense alliance is gradually increasing its presence in the Baltic region.
“Deterrence is largely in the hands of NATO: deployment of troops to protect the territory from the first meter, realistic defense plans, shared defense resources. Russia takes all this into account in its calculations. Russia will not want to start a war when its outcome is unclear for it,” sums up a high-ranking official from the Baltic countries.
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