The USA is preparing for nuclear deterrence of the Russian Federation and China — The Economist

 Trump's potential impact on US nuclear policy

Donald Trump's return to the White House could disrupt American alliances and force allies in Asia and Europe to take a fresh look at their own nuclear capabilities.

The British publication The Economist writes about it.

Whoever wins the November US election will get it

nuclear complex in the midst of a 30-year, $1.5 trillion renovation. Many different projects are foreseen, such as the development of a new warhead and a cruise missile, the creation of new plutonium capacities, the construction of new submarines, bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Against the background of the war in Ukraine, the nuclear rhetoric of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as the growth of China's nuclear arsenal (from less than 300 warheads in 2019 to 500 today and, according to Pentagon forecasts, to 1,000 by the end of the decade), America is increasingly concerned about that will have to confront two major nuclear powers at the same time.

"What is the strategic value to the United States of being able to strike back against a second nuclear power after the first has launched and sustained a major nuclear strike?" — this is the question posed by the authors of a recent article by the National Laboratory of the US Department of Energy in Livermore (California), which deals with issues of nuclear modernization.

"If America had to fight a nuclear war, for example with China, would Russia cross the nuclear threshold to deliver a decisive blow, defeat a hated enemy and achieve a dominant position?" - also goes in the publication.

Skeptics consider the problem exaggerated. The US nuclear arsenal is still ten times larger than China's. The war in Ukraine is also not considered a valid reason for increasing the stockpile of nuclear weapons.

"The strategic nuclear balance does not appear to have played a significant role in this crisis," said Francis Gavin, a nuclear energy historian at Johns Hopkins University. He pointed out how little was discussed about the status, readiness and number of nuclear weapons of the two largest nuclear powers, which may indicate that America will be able to cope even if Russia and China outnumber it.

But there is another opinion. Last October, a congressional commission, which included people from the Obama and Trump administrations, warned that "the size and composition of nuclear forces must take into account the possibility of joint aggression by the Russian Federation and China," and that the United States must have the ability to "simultaneously deter both countries". In general, a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal is needed.

The US does not have the capacity to produce a huge number of new warheads. But there are about 1,900 nuclear weapons in reserve.

The deployed arsenal can be doubled if weapons are installed in existing missiles and other systems. The Russian Federation can increase its arsenal by 57%, adding a little less than 1,000. Today, this is contained by the SHO-III. But last year, Russia abandoned the inspections required by the treaty, a sign that its days are coming to an end.

Another option, privately favored by some of Trump's advisers, is the resumption of nuclear testing. The USA, the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China have not conducted similar tests since the 90s, relying on computer simulations. During his presidency, Trump accused China and Russia of secret "low-power" tests and considered a change in policy. In recent years, there have been signs of construction of tunnels, new facilities and increased traffic at test sites in the USA, Russia and China. This probably indicates that each of the countries is trying to insure against changes in other countries.

But nothing is decided. Trump may try to establish arms control and negotiate with Russia and China to establish himself as a successful parliamentarian, according to Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. In exchange for limiting the development of missile defense, the US could ask Russia to include its large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons in any future arms control agreements and invite China to sign the agreement as well.

But in January, Trump publicly endorsed the missile defense system, citing the success of Israel's Iron Dome system. Therefore, the mentioned issues will cause internal tension in the future administration.